The Boilermakers head to Touchdown Jesus this weekend for the kickoff of the Robert Marve Era for the University known as The Cradle of Quarterbacks.  Marve should be looking to have a big day against an Irish secondary with only four cornerbacks on scholarship.  The Irish do return 9 starters on D however they were torched for 289 yards and 3 TDs last year.  Keith Smith will look to improve upon his 11 catch 136 yard performance last year and will be partnered with ex QB Justin Siller, speedster Antavian Edison, and reliable TE Kyle Adams. Notre Dame was able to stifle the Boilers rushing attack in 2009 and with the injury to Bolden the Boilers will be lucky to even get three yards after a cloud of dust.

The Irish will have a potent and versatile offensive attack which is Brian Kelly’s signature.  It will be interesting to see how Kelly either shelters or exposes Dayne Crist who has been held out of all contact drills this off season as he is recovering from a knee injury.  Keep in mind the Irish have not named a back up QB and if Crist goes down and Kelly looks to Nate Montana there’s no Rice on their depth chart for the underage drinking and pot smoking QB from NoCal to find in the Purdue secondary.   

Crist is familiar with this Purdue defense as he went 5 for 10 last year for 45 yards against the Boilers and led the Fighten’ on two touchdown drives.  Crist will have plenty of weapons to test the inexperienced Purdue secondary (zero returning starters) however most of the damage the Irish will reek will be on the ground.  Fourth year man Armando Allen will start in the back field; Robert Hughes and Cierre Wood will also see carries.  Michael Floyd and Kyle Rudolph will receive the bulk of the air attack and look for Theo Riddick on some end around action for the Irish spread offense.  Kelly will also mix in some wildcat formations which were so effective in West Lafayette a season ago. 

Last year the Irish ran for 167 yards on the Big Ten’s worst rush Defense however ND has a rebuilt Offensive Line and the Boilers have added former Rutgers Assistant Gary Emanuel to coach the Defensive line.  In 2009 he guided the 20^th ranked Rutgers rush defense and now he gets to work with two potential DLine first rounder’s, Short and Kerrigan; to quote the great Ochocinco…child please.

The keys to this game will be whether Purdue can create enough of a run threat to keep the Irish Defense honest and whether the Purdue Defense can slow the ND running attack to create 3^rd and longs and let the big dogs up front rush Crist.

 Trends:

- Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS at home in 2009

- Notre Dame is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

- Notre Dame is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

- Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.

- Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite

- Purdue has given up 33.67 points per game to Spread Offenses in the Danny Hope Head Coaching Era.

- Purdue plays to the under 69 times in their last 108 games on grass.

-  2009 Score: ND 24 – Purdue 21

With the amount of question marks on each team’s defense, new starting quarterbacks for each offensive, and Notre Dame’s ATS struggles I have to go with the Boilermakers.  Marve will do enough with his legs to keep the Irish Linebackers honest and the Boilers have stressed the importance of the turnover battle this entire off season and I look for them to be on the plus side in that category.  Give me those 11 points Bookie and show me the money on Monday.

 The Purdue grass under trend is sexy…and look for some nerves to start out the season for each offense.  This game will be tight and both teams will be looking not to make the big mistake…this game plays to the under.

Picks:

Purdue: +11

Under:   54.5

 -LocksvilleUSA

Cowboy UP (GBI Tom Campbell)

Let me start this off with I hate Duke…I have hated Duke all my life…I hated them growing up because I am from Maryland and loved the terps…I partied when Duke lost to IU in the 2002 tourney and I partied harder when Maryland beat IU in the finals of that tourney.  Then I attended Purdue in the fall and gave up the terps but still kept the hate for the Dukies.  Since then I have placed some large bets on the Blue Devils because I do not let my fanhood get in the way of free cash…but no matter what happens tomorrow I will be hammered because of Bade and the Boiler drinking game and still hating Duke and coach gay.  By the way I’ll be at Jerry Remy’s bar in Boston.

Duke dominated Purdue on the stat board and killed us last year by opening up with a huge run and crushing it on the boards…the only major statistical advantage Purdue has is free throw shooting and that isn’t even true because our best free throw shooter will be chillin on the bench on crutches but none of that matters.  We have the heart…we want to show Obama that his bracket is worse than an autistic kid’s…and we have Kramer.  I know he is good for an awful drive and layup which gets swatted…but ask those three tamu defenders what happened in OT and they have no answer.

Can you name the last time Duke beat a 4 seed or higher in the dance?  The answer was 2001…I was dominating high school tennis that year…I was still rooting for Maryland that year…Bill Clinton ended his presidency that year…
Trends:
Duke is 4-11 against the spread in their last 15 tourney games as a favorite

Purdue is 7-3 ats as an underdog in their last 10 tourney games

Purdue is the astronaut school and Duke will be screaming Houston we have a problem all night tomorrow.

Get some Purdue…BTFU

Picks:

Purdue +8.5

Total Over 127

All I needed to hear to make this pick is the Purdue post game press conference.  All JJ and Lewjack talked about was how everybody was against them and that they played to silence all the haters…well that fire won’t be there today…the team has already reached their goal and TAMU will shut them down today.   No need to even look at the numbers just look at my streak of late…take TAMU and take the under…

Picks

TAMU -2

Under 127.5

Well…it looks like the end of the road to what could have been a legendary season and instead will end with a first round loss to Siena and the Boilers will only have their big 10 title and a long trip back to West Lafayette…at least according to Joe the Plumber, Borat, that hot chick in accounting who really isn’t that hot but your work is lacking in  talent, and every chump who never watched a college hoops game and is filling out a bracket.

The numbers in the game point to Siena, Siena is coming in riding a 5 game win streak, Purdue had the worst half of their lives in their last game, Hummel is out, Lew Jack and Moore are both dinged up, and Bade still gets playing time.   The whole world is against the Boilers…and JJ is waiting for the Glenn Robinson “shock the world” text message.

The problem with all that noise is that the Boilers have heard it all week (including on the selection show) and I love it.  Kramer and the boys will be fired up and ready to play shutdown defense on a team that doesn’t shoot free throws well, doesn’t hit many 3’s, and also only plays their starting 5, one of whom is doubtful to play (Clarence Jackson). 

Give me heart and determination and pair that with a senor not wanting his last college game to be against the Siena Saints…Give me Chris Kramer and Purdue.

Picks:
Purdue -4
Under 130

Purdue comes into this afternoons big ten tourney semifinal off of a come from behind victory over the wildcats and the gophers come in on a high after an OT victory over Sparty.

Minny guards have struggled against the Purdue defense in the past however Sampson III showed some inside post presence in the last meeting at the barn and I expect that to continue. Devoe will be a big factor if Westbrook and Hoffarber struggle from the outside but since Purdue has still not shown to be an offensive threat without Hummel and I don’t expect that to change.

Trends:
Min is 7-1 against the spread in their last 8
Purdue is 0-5-1 ats in there last 6 (0-4-1 w/o Hummel)
Under is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings
Public is 53 percent on Purdue and 56 percent on the over.

Look for another defensive battle with Minny hitting enough 3s and rebounding well enough to get the cover.

Picks:
Minny +2.5
Under 125.5

Northwestern @ Purdue (Purdue -8, Total 128.5)

Purdue takes on the wildcats in the second round of the big ten tourney this afternoon. Purdue has still not shown that they are able to score or cover since the injury to Hummel. Since that injury Purdue is 0-4 ATS and all games have gone under. Pair that with a Northwestern 11-4 ATS record against the Boilers in their last 15 matchups and that makes the cats the play. Northwestern has been on a scoring streak of late however and I actually expect the game to go over.

Trends:
NW is 17-7 in their last 24 ATS
Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings
Over is 8-1 in there last 9 contests
Under is 4-0 in the Boilers last 4 without Hummel

Picks:
Northwestern +8
Over 128.5

The Boilers roll into State College in search of a share of the Big Ten title and the number 2 seed in the conference tourney. Purdue has won 7 out of the last 8 meetings however that sole loss was last year at Penn State without Hummel.

Penn State has shown some fight recently with 4 against the spread covers in their last 5 with the only loser coming against Evan Turner. Note that with under 4 mins left in that game it was a 2 point game and if PSU had hit free throws they get the cover…trust me I bet the buckeyes.

Penn State looks to be coming on strong at the end of the year similar to their run in 09. Look for the Boilers to struggle in their first road test without Hummel so take the Nittany Lions and the points.

The under is 10-2 in the last 12 between these squads.

65 percent of the public is backing the Boilers.

Picks:

Penn State +6
Under 129.5

Indiana slumps into West Lafayette for Boilermaker senior day having lost their last seven games Against The Spread (ATS).  The Hoosiers last ATS victory was the near upset over Hummel and the boys back on 2/4/10.  IU has shown all the signs of a team that has given up on the season, however there is always something to be said for rivalry games. 

I thought Purdue would come out with fire last game, and if you were to look at the turnover stats it looks like they hustled and created some tough situations for the Spartans.  The problem is that most of Sparty’s turnovers were unforced travels and errant passes to open fans in the stands.  The rebounding effort was abysmal and the offense was stagnant without the threat of an outside jumper.

Hopefully Purdue can right the ship tonight; however, until they prove they can score and rebound without Hummel, they are fade material. 

Note that IU only had 10 turnovers last game and also lost the rebounding battle to Purdue.  Tonight, if Purdue plays with that same fire, the turnovers may go up a little bit, but rebounding will still be an advantage for the Gas Station Attendants.  

For Purdue to cover this spread, they need to score around 70 – 80 points and I just cannot figure out where that output is going to come from.  Although Purdue will be hyped up and ready to play with intensity for their seniors on Senior Night, it’s still not going to help make Lew Jack/Barlow/Kramer serviceable jump shooters or give JJ/Bade some Hakeem the Dream post up moves (especially not Bade).  Who else hates that JJ one handed fade-away hook shot attempt?  It looks worse than Dwight Howard’s.

In the last 10 matchups between these squads the final score was more than a 20 twenty point disparity only once.  With the close game played earlier this year, and the Hummel injury, the IU cover seems like a lock.

Pick

Indiana +19.5

Under 132

Michigan State travels to West Lafayette looking for revenge from their defeat in Spartyville earlier this year.

Everybody knows by now that Robbie Hummel is done for the year, however the odds makers still have the Boilers listed as a favorite today (although 60 percent of the public backing the green).

With losses by Kansas and Kentucky yesterday, Purdue has an outside shot of ending up as the number 1 team in the nation with an impressive victory today. I look for Kramer and Grant to step up their scoring and this new look Purdue team will be quicker and more active defensively. The Sparty size may give Purdue some issues on the boards.  JaJuan Johnson must stay out of foul trouble now more then ever so we can limit the minutes Bade sees. If Purdue plays with fire and intensity to shut up all doubters, they will roll the over confident Spartans and make a case for number 1 in the nation and a 1 seed in March.

Trends:
MSU is 0-6 ats in their last 6 vs teams with a winning SU record
MSU is 2-6 ats in their last 8
Purdue is 19-7-1 at home in their last 27 games vs a team with a winning road record
The favorite is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings
Under is 9-2 in the last 11

Look for Purdue to take a page out of the Notre Dame play book and have everybody step up when a star player goes down.

Picks:
Purdue -4
Under 135.5

LocksvilleUSA

This 2.5 point spread screams trap game all day…I couldn’t believe it when I saw the line and neither can 72% of the public which also scares me.  However Purdue has been road warriors of late and as long as they can control the 3 point shooting of the Gophers this game is a lock for the Boilers.

I guess the Gophers have played well in their last 2 home games but lets not forget Michigan coming into the Barn and posting an 8 point victory two weeks ago.

The only way the Gophers can even contend in this game is for Westbrook and Hoffarber to go nuts and drain a bunch of threes…and even if this happens Purdue would still need to be in foul trouble for a Gopher cover.

In addition, Purdue has covered the last four meetings between these squads including a similar 1 point spread at the Barn last year.

Trends From Covers.com:

Golden Gophers are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog.

Golden Gophers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Golden Gophers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 vs. Big Ten

Golden Gophers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog.

Over is 5-1 in Boilermakers last 6 road games.

Stick it to your Bookie and pound the Boilers tonight…if you need an over/under go with the Over because this should be a high scoring game as both teams have improved offenseivily since the last meeting.

Picks:

Purdue -2.5

Over 135.5